NTR target can be raised moderately on spectrum auction

New Delhi, May 30: The government is likely to raise the non-tax revenue (NTR) target moderately from the Rs 2.72 lakh crore set in the interim budget on the back of spectrum auction that will form a part of the NTR in the July Budget.

This year RBI excess reserves are also likely to be part of the NTR but the quantum has to be decided as per the Bimal Jalan panel report. The Jalan panel will submit the report once the new Finance Minister takes charge, as the report is to be submitted to the Minister only.

However, the Budget may not mention the proceeds from the excess reserves separately as it will form part of overall revenues from the Reserve Bank of India.

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) had recommended auction of about 8,644 MHz of telecom frequencies which if sold at base prices then estimated proceeds of Rs 5 lakh crore could be a possibility .

In 2018-19, the NTR target was Rs 2.45 lakh crore and till February, according to the government accountant -- CGA, the amount collected was Rs 1.71 lakh crore.

The tax revenue front is also not rosy. Direct taxes have failed to meet target by Rs 50,000 crore for the last fiscal though government is yet to come out with the figures. The GST revenues are not pacing up as they were required to be. GST collections pegged at a modest Rs 7.61 lakh crore for FY20.

The direct tax target is going to be revised in the July Budget downwards.

As most PSU banks are on the verge of recovery while some are still facing losses, their dividend payout could be minimum.

The disinvestment target is Rs 90,000 crore for the fiscal PSU banks dividend payout fell short by Rs 5,840 crore against the Rs 6,140 crore target, which was mainly due to low profitability of the PSU banks in 2018-19.

NTR comprises RBI dividends, disinvestment proceeds, CPSEs and PSU banks dividends, telecom sector revenues and spectrum auction sell off proceeds (if it happens in any year) and has emerged as a major source of revenues for the government in recent years in the event of shortfalls in direct and indirect tax revenues. The Centre got Rs 68,000 crore as dividend from the RBI in 2018-19, which was the highest payout ever.