Taiwan enters New Year with the shadow of Xi looming on its shores

Washington, Dec 17

Taiwan, and its most important and powerful ally the US, spent most of 2023 in anticipation of an impending Chinese invasion. As the year before, and the year before that.

Year 2024 will be no different, as many top US generals and experts have warned that the Chinese invasion could take place in 2024, or any time after till 2027.

Fueling these fears is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s instructions to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to unify Taiwan with China either by force or otherwise by 2027, which is key to the fulfillment of his “China Dream”.

The war against Taiwan, if it comes to that, might seem easy given the overall military superiority of the Chinese military but an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait will be difficult and costly to sustain over a period of time.

But the real war that Xi wants China to be prepared for is the one against the US which is likely to come to Taiwan’s aid if it is invaded.

That has been the unspecified part of America’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding its plans in cases of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for decades.

President Joe Biden, however, has ended the ambiguity and stated clearly enough times to differentiate from a gaffe or mistake. He has said he will send troops to Taiwan’s aid if it is attacked.

The US has a one-China policy under which it recognises the People’s Republic of China as the only China and does not support independence for Taiwan.

But, as part of this same policy, it does not want either party to try to force a change in the status quo.

Under this same policy, the US has been mandated by its congress to supply Taiwan whatever military equipment it needs to defend itself from China. And that makes the US the real adversary for China in Xi’s goal of unifying Taiwan with the mainland.

Biden reiterated this US policy in his meeting with Xi in November.

“He made it clear to President Xi that we don’t seek conflict; we -- were pursuing peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait -- that’s what we -- we wanted and still want; that there's no change to our One China policy; that we don't support independence for Taiwan,” John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesperson, told reporters after the summit.

“But that we will, in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, continue to provide self-defense capabilities to -- to Taiwan; and, again, make the point that we don't want to see the status quo changed in any sort of a unilateral way and certainly not by force.”

A key aspect of Biden's unwavering support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian invasion is a signal to Xi, that he can expect the same level of US pushback if he ever did indeed decide to invade Taiwan.

Republic of China, as Taiwan is officially named, is an island nation roughly the size of Kerala. It is not recognized as a country by the UN, as of 1971.

Although most countries do not have regular diplomatic ties with Taiwan with missions and consulates there, they maintain representative presence.

The American Institute in Taiwan, a private corporation sponsored by the US government serves US interests there. India is represented there by the Indian Representative Office in Taipei.

Reciprocally, Taiwan is represented by the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in these countries.

Wedded to a one-China policy for decades, India has been ramping up ties with Taiwan in recent years, especially as relations with China deteriorated in the aftermath of 2020 border clashes in Galwan Valley.

Although these ties are mostly rooted in economic and business sectors, the two countries are being pushed together by America’s efforts to build a compact against China.

There is talk here in Washington D.C. about a possible role India could play in a US-China conflict over Taiwan. Or, it has been suggested by one expert, the US should expect no help from India.