June 26, Ottawa:
The Liberal Party suffered a crushing defeat in Tuesday's by-elections in the Toronto-St. Paul constituency, a traditional stronghold for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals, The Liberals have controlled the seat for almost 30 years, including at the party's worst moments (like the 2011 federal election, when they only managed to re-elect 34 MPs), so Stewart's triumph comes as a shock.
It had been since the 1980s that a Conservative candidate in Toronto-St. Paul's had any chance of winning the race until Monday's vote. Since the 2011 federal election, the party had failed to secure a seat in Toronto's urban core.
In a hotly contested election, the consultant and Conservative candidate Don Stewart received approximately 42% of the vote, while the lawyer and former Parliament Hill worker Leslie Church received about 40%.
According to CBC News, Trudeau may do some soul-searching in the wake of the Liberal Party's dismal performance in this traditionally Liberal bastion. Voter unhappiness is fueling Trudeau's popularity decline, which is compounded by other issues such as rising prices, high housing costs, and the cost of living crisis.
Since such a large swing in votes could give the Conservatives a chance to take more "safe" seats in the next general election, the Liberal caucus is understandably worried about this Conservative upset. By a margin of about 24 points in 2021, the incumbent Liberal MP, Carolyn Bennett, triumphed against her Conservative challenger in this constituency. For the church, it was a two-point loss. The next provincial election may see the loss of seats for dozens of Liberal MPs if the same kind of vote swing occurred in other ridings.
Based on a study of previous election data conducted by CBC News, it appears that around 55 Liberal MPs from Ontario were elected with margins that were narrower than what Bennett reported for Toronto-St. Paul's in the last general election. After 26 years in Parliament, Bennett—a party heavyweight with a large following in the area—resigned last year to take a position as ambassador to Denmark for Canada.
In response to the shocking results, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expressed empathy for the public's "concerns and frustrations" and acknowledged the immense task before of his team. "I want you to know that I hear your concerns and frustrations. This was obviously not the result we wanted," Trudeau stated in a statement to the media. He declined reporters' requests for interviews. "We are not living in easy times. The fact is, though, that my whole team and I still have a long way to go before we can show the Canadian people the results of our labour.
In response to the results, Prime Minister Trudeau was asked by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievr to call for an early election, who is Trudeau's major opponent. "Justice has been served: Trudeau must end this immediately," Poilievre wrote on X. "He must call a carbon tax election now."
Just one year before election year, Trudeau's support ratings plummeted to 30 percent, a historic low, as voters voiced their worries. According to some sources, Trudeau's Liberal Party is expected to suffer a crushing defeat at the hands of the Conservatives in the upcoming elections. Sometime next year, Canadians can anticipate the country's general elections. Trudeau has pledged to spearhead the Liberal Party into the upcoming elections next year, even if his ratings are dropping.
