New York, Nov 3
People waiting for the US Presidential election results on Tuesday night may not know the outcome unless Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump scores a significant victory in most states, especially the so-called swing states.
If there are no blow-out margins of victory and the election numbers follow the polls all of which give leads within the margin of error -- with crucial swing state Pennsylvania’s as narrow as 0.4 per cent for Trump -- it may take days or even weeks to sort out the contested results with recounts.
Traditionally, the candidate losing the election concedes defeat even before the official announcement of the results if the outcome is clear.
But Trump has not admitted he lost even four years after President Joe Biden defeated him in 2020.
If Trump loses, he is sure to mount legal challenges, and so would Harris in a very tight election where a few hundred, or even fewer votes can decide the winner.
Both have armies of lawyers waiting in the wings.
A complicating factor is that the President is elected by the electoral college of 538 members distributed among states according to their population and not by the popular vote. Except in two small states, whoever gets the majority of popular votes in the state gets all of its electoral votes.
Therefore, a candidate can get the majority of the popular votes but still lose if that does not translate into a majority in the electoral college.
In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won nearly 3 million more votes than Trump, but lost to him because he won the majority in the electoral college, 306 to 227.
The final verdict will come from the seven swing states where neither party has a definitive majority and could go either way and together they have 93 electoral college votes.
Another complication in getting the results is that the Federal Election Commission deals only with election finance laws and does not run the elections.
Therefore, without a national election body overseeing elections or uniform procedures and regulations across the country, states follow different timetables for closing the polling and counting absentee ballots -- those sent by post or, in some cases, deposited by other means.
The official tally comes later, with each state following its procedures to certify the results.
If the margins of the votes cast in person either on election day or early voting days in a state do not markedly exceed the yet-to-be-counted absentee ballots, the results will be held up for that state.
If the margins are very close, either party could demand recounts which could also delay the results.
In 2020, the media announced the results of the November 3 elections four days later on November 7 after tallying the electoral college vote needed for a victory, even though the counting was not complete in all the states.
The 2020 election in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Vice President Al Gore took 35 days to be resolved because of a dispute over the Florida votes.
Finally, on December 12, the Supreme Court stopped the recount and the result of the November 7 election was announced.
If all goes smoothly and the margins are wide enough in the key states, the results could be known as early as midnight in New York (Wednesday 10.30 a.m. Indian Standard Time - IST), with the balloting ending an hour earlier in California.
Media may also start giving an idea of the trend earlier at about 9 p.m. in New York (7.30 a.m. Wednesday IST) about an hour after Pennsylvania closes.
The elections close in states at different local times which translates to between 6 p.m. New York (Wednesday 4:30 am IST) to midnight New York (10.30 a.m. IST).
The official announcements are certain to be delayed in several states because of legal challenges.
The governors of each state have a deadline of December 11 to submit 'Certificates of Ascertainment' - the official tally of electoral college votes – to National Archivist Colleen J. Shogan, whose role is like that of a head record-keeper for the country.
The electoral college was scheduled by law to meet on the second Tuesday after the first Wednesday of the month - December 17.
They do not meet in one place but vote in their state capitals.
