2025 climate forecast warns of wildfire danger in dry winter season in US

New York, Dec 28
Wildfires may be in the news again this winter across the southern tier of the United States as drought persists and expands across the region.

"Fire is probably the biggest danger going into winter," said climatologist and drought expert Brian Fuchs.

Long-promised La Niña conditions are still expected to develop, perhaps as early as January, which typically lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months, leaving the southern tier of the country warmer and drier, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said. As a result, forecasters expect drought conditions to persist and worsen across the southern United States, Xinhua news agency reported quoting the USA TODAY on Friday.

"The places to watch will definitely be the Southwest, Southeast and how much of the southern Plains ends up reverting back into drought over the next several months," said Fuchs of the National Drought Mitigation Centre.

Overall, 38.9 per cent of the contiguous United States is in drought, which is down about 13 per cent since early November, according to the most recent US Drought Monitor.

Looking ahead, other than the risk for wildfires, "drought impacts are typically less pronounced during the winter, but some longer-term hydrology issues remain, including below-normal soil moisture and streamflow, particularly across portions of Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois," according to a report on Drought.gov.

"Dry wells and low springs continue to be an issue in southeast Ohio, and low farm ponds are a problem in northwest Ohio," the report said.

"I think the big picture is shaping up that the La Niña winter we are expecting will bring more dryness to the southern portions of the US, with new drought development likely (through the end of March 2025) from Arizona into central and northeast Texas along the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast (including Florida)," Fuchs said.

He added that many of the precipitation numbers were 'skewed' in the Southeast and Florida from the tropical storms and hurricanes earlier in the fall, but the dryness has been building up since. "I expect to see more drought through the winter and into early spring."