What Nilambur bypoll means for Kerala politics

Thiruvananthapuram, May 27
The June 19 bypoll to the Nilambur Assembly constituency in Kerala will set a decisive way forward for the traditional political rivals -- the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

While the Congress has declared its candidate, the CPI(M) and the BJP are yet to name their representatives for the seat.

The Congress was the first to announce its candidate -- Aryadan Shoukath, son of Congress veteran Aryadan Mohammed, who won from this constituency eight times and lost thrice between 1967 and 2016, after which he retired from active politics.

In 2016, Shoukath was fielded, but he lost to P.V. Anvar, the then Left Independent candidate, and in 2021, he retained the seat.

Anvar, initially a diehard fan of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, fell out with him. In January, Anvar resigned from his seat and pledged support to the Congress-led UDF.

However, Anvar’s plan to enter the UDF has not materialised, and even though he pledged his support, the Congress party has decided to put it on hold, and presently, that is the only negative point for Shoukath.

A political analyst on condition of anonymity told IANS that this election has now panned out to be more crucial for CM Vijayan than either the Congress or Anvar.

“The narrative has been set by the Left that CM Vijayan will win a straight third term in 2026. Therefore, now the onus is on CM Vijayan to ensure that they retain the seat, if not, then doubts will creep regarding the narrative,” said the analyst.

The CPI(M)-led Left is still undecided on whether to field their own candidate or prop a Left-supported Independent.

The BJP, which secured just around 8,000 votes in the 2021 Assembly polls, is also in a quandary over whether they or their ally should contest, as, for all practical purposes, they know for sure they will be fighting a losing battle.

On Tuesday morning, Shoukath, along with his supporters led by V.S. Joy, the Malappuram district Congress chief, arrived at the grave of Aryadan Mohammed.

With tears running down his cheeks, Shoukath said, even though his father is not with him, his blessings will be with him always.

Joy, who was also an aspirant for the seat, said, "Aryadan Mohammed Sir wished very badly that the Congress wins the seat in 2016 and 2021, but he died with a deep heart in 2022. This time, even though he is not with us, we are going to win.”

For CM Vijayan, the win is crucial to retain his iron grip on the party. For the Congress-led Front, the seat is important to boost its prospects ahead of the 2026 Assembly polls.