Washington, Sep 9
Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is shaped by religious nationalism, military dominance, and geopolitical insecurity with the country's military elite having long showcased itself as the "guardians" of nation's borders and Islamic identity, a report detailed on Tuesday.
To compensate its asymmetry with India regarding size, population, and economic power, Pakistan has adopted asymmetric warfare and established strategic partnerships, Washington-based think tank Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) said in a report. Nuclear weapons have become the great equalizer, allowing Pakistan to challenge India's conventional superiority as they are not only tools of deterrence, but also symbols of identity, defiance and power.
"Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is shaped not by strategic restraint, but by a combustible mix of religious nationalism, military dominance, and geopolitical insecurity. Pakistan's military elite have long portrayed themselves as 'guardians' not only of the nation's borders but of its Islamic identity. In doing so, they've marginalised civilian institutions and entrenched a military-mosque nexus that has reshaped Pakistan's national narrative, from aspiring to be 'non-Indian' to becoming aggressively 'anti-Indian.' This ideological shift has locked the state, and increasingly its people, into a posture of perpetual hostility," the report stated.
Pakistan is estimated to have around 170 nuclear warheads, with projections suggesting rise to 200 and its investment in tactical nuclear weapons and ambiguous red lines has created a dangerously unstable environment, one where miscalculation could cause catastrophe. China's role in Pakistan's nuclear development has been foundational and enduring, transitioning from covert military assistance in the late 1960s to overt civil nuclear cooperation in recent decades.
"India's nuclear doctrine is rooted in restraint: a clear no-first-use policy and a commitment to deterrence, not warfighting. Pakistan, by contrast, has embraced ambiguity and escalation. It rejects no-first-use and has adopted a 'full spectrum deterrence' strategy, covering strategic, operational, and tactical levels," MEMRI report stated.
It adds that the United States has "naively contributed" to Pakistan's nuclear growth without fully understanding its long-term consequences. The successive US administrations have prioritised short-term strategic interests over long-term security while publicly committing to non-proliferation.
"Pakistan's nuclear trajectory, driven by ideological nationalism, facilitated by China, and underestimated by the United States, has culminated in a uniquely dangerous and volatile situation. What began as a strategic hedge against conventional inferiority has evolved into a doctrine of ambiguity, escalation and brinkmanship. Pakistan's military leadership, emboldened by its unchecked dominance over civilian institutions and its self-appointed role as guardian of Islamic identity, has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to invoke nuclear threats not as a last resort, but as a tool of political leverage and psychological warfare. This behaviour is not just irresponsible, it is destabilising," the report mentions.
"The foundational principles of nuclear deterrence, built on restraint, clarity, and mutual vulnerability, are being actively eroded. Pakistan's rejection of a no-first-use policy, its investment in tactical nuclear weapons, and its vague red lines have lowered the threshold for nuclear use and increased the risk of miscalculation. Its military's close ties with extremist groups[23] and its history of proliferation further compounds the threat, raising legitimate concerns about the security and integrity of its arsenal," the MEMRI report added.
