New York, Nov 4
Elections across several parts of the United States on Tuesday will choose state and local officials, decide key local issues, and put the spotlight on Zohair Mamdani, a controversial progressive running on the Democratic Party ticket in New York City, the nation’s largest metropolis.
US President Donald Trump's looming presence animating the polls either way, although the scattered polls can't quite be a referendum on him.
But some of the elections can give a hint of next year’s midterm elections' outcomes, where Congress is at play, and these include the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia.
A referendum to redraw Congressional constituencies in California to elect more Democrats and balance the Republicans, altering them to their advantage in Texas and elsewhere, is also on the ballot.
Congressional constituency delimitation is done by the states, and California's Democrat-heavy electorate is expected to go for it.
Citizens registering to vote in the US election system opt to sign up to a party or to be independent, and New York is overwhelmingly Democrats, with 56 per cent of the voters to 26 per cent for Republicans and 18 per cent Independent.
In the June primary, the intraparty elections to pick the party candidates, Mamdani struck a stunning win, defeating former Governor Andrew Cuomo and sitting Mayor Eric Adams fueled by the city Democrat’s anathema towards Trump and the candidate's promises of free city buses, rent freeze and taxing the rich and backed by a strategically astute army of youth, fresh off anti-Israel protests that rocked the city.
He is challenged by Cuomo, a moderate running as an independent, and Curtis Sliwa, the founder of a vigilante group, on the Republican ticket.
The polls show that if Cuomo and Sliwa's votes were combined, Mamdani could lose, and even Trump has shown support for Cuomo, saying a “bad” Democrat was better than a communist.
While the communist moniker is contested, Trump and others base it on Mamdani’s promise to Democrat Socialists to ultimately take over the means of production – a decidedly communist platform — and similar statements which he and his supporters downplay now.
But Sliwa, defying Trump, refused to withdraw from the race, giving Mamdani the edge in a three-way race, even though Cuomo has had a late surge in polls.
Mamdani is the son of Mira Nair, the movie director who is from a Hindu family and has not converted to Islam, at least publicly, and a Ugandan academic, Mahmood Mamdani, who claims Indian roots.
Mamdani, who claims his father’s religion and his radicalism, if elected, would be the city’s first Muslim mayor – sharing a status like that of British-Pakistani Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, that country’s main city.
With the middle name Kwame, he has also claimed to be "African American".
A Khalistan supporter, who joined their rally where vile chants against Hindus were shouted, he has said he would boycott Prime Minister Narendra Modi if he visited the city.
Deeply anti-Israel to the extent of being anti-Semitic, according to some, he has also made the absurd threat of using city police to arrest Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who would be guarded by the federal Secret Service and his own bodyguards.
Like that, many of his campaign promises are beyond the mayor's powers.
He has accused the city’s police department, which he has said he would cut, of being linked to Israel’s military.
However, the Jewish voters, traditionally liberal and Democrat, are split, with many backing Mamdani because of their opposition to Trump.
That goes for Hindus also and Congressman Ro Khanna campaigned for Mamdani in a heavily South Asian neighbourhood at an event which Americans of Bangladeshi and Pakistani descent dominated.
Tactically for the Republicans, a Mamdani win would be useful in next year’s election when they can try to tie moderate Democrats in swing constituencies to his radicalism.
That is one of the reasons many Democrats like former President Barack Obama and the party’s Senate leader Chuck Schumer, have not endorsed him, while many party legislators have broken the party line to back Cuomo.
A Democrat running for public prosecutor – an elected post – in neighbouring Nassau County has served a legal notice against Republicans for tying him to Mamdani.
In Virginia, which adjoins Washington, the latest poll shows the Democrat Abigail Spanberger with a 10-per-cent lead over the current Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and poised to wrest the governorship from Republicans.
But the Democrat running for attorney general, who made death threats against the governor and his wife – but still managed to get the party’s endorsement, is down in the polls.
New Jersey polls give a slight edge to Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and Congresswoman, over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman and former state assemblyman.
In both these races, like many around the country, Trump overrides local issues and Democrats tie him to the Republicans, who play a balancing act distancing themselves from some of the president’s policies.
Among other major mayoral races, Democrat-run cities Minneapolis, Detroit, Boston, New Orleans, Cincinnati, and Charlotte are expected to stay with Democrats, while in Miami, Republican are expressed to retain control.
In Cincinnati, Mayor Aftab Karma Singh Pureval, the son of a Tibetan mother and a Sikh father, is expected to defeat Vice President JD Vance’s half-brother Cory Bowman.
