President Barack Obama's upcoming trip to India could well lead to
deeper cooperation between the two countries as it was in their mutual
interest, analysts suggested though some cautioned against high
expectations.
"Obama and Modi See Mutual Benefit in Breaking More
Ice," said the influential New York Times in a story from New Delhi
suggesting "Beneath the surface of the two leaders' personal
relationship are the shifting tectonic plates of geopolitics."
"With
the expansion of Chinese power into the Indian Ocean, American and
Indian interests in the region are gradually converging," it said.
Another
"reason for a closer embrace of Washington by New Delhi is that the
members of the new political elite around Mr. Modi have far deeper ties
to the United States than their predecessors, from the left-leaning and
long-dominant Indian National Congress party," the Times suggested.
Many
of Modi's supporters, it noted "are Gujarati businessmen who have
prospered in the United States and preach the successful immigrants'
gospel of free enterprise."
Ashley J. Tellis, a senior associate
at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, felt Obama's return
to India carries "the hope that Washington and New Delhi may succeed in
placing their cooperation on firmer foundations."
But "achieving
this objective will require reconciling American expectations of
exchange-based relations with the Indian desire for a no-obligations
partnership," he wrote.
"This challenge is best handled through a
set of complementary policies in Washington and New Delhi that together
are most aptly characterized as 'unity in difference'," Tellis
suggested.
"Achieving a genuine strategic partnership between the
United States and India is challenging, but it will be a worthwhile
investment in the long-term security and relative power positions of
both India and the United States," he wrote.
Tellis recommended
that Washington should act to deepen the relationship by strengthening
India's capabilities without any expectations of clear quid pro quos.
New
Delhi in turn "should articulate a geopolitical vision that preserves a
special priority for the United States and look for creative ways to
demonstrate strategic solidarity with Washington," he suggested.
However,
Michael Kugelman, a senior associate for South Asia at the Woodrow
Wilson International Center for Scholars, cited four reasons to keep
expectations from Obama's India trip in check.
Despite "the
hoopla and hype" he suggested in a blog post in the Wall Street Journal,
"It will feature much happy talk but few substantive outcomes."
His reasons: It's too soon after the Modi-Obama meeting in Washington;
Many
of India's chief priorities are linked to protracted political debates
in Washington; the lingering influence of inconvenient Indian policies
and bilateral tensions.
"None of this is to suggest that Obama's visit will not yield deliverables," Kugelman wrote.
"We
can expect modest accords on defence, economics, and energy - but
nothing like the civil nuclear deal of 2008, which some described as the
cornerstone of an emerging strategic partnership," he wrote.
(Arun Kumar can be contacted at arun.kumar@ians.in)
