Nitish Kumar, the former chief minister of Bihar who thought he had a puppet in Jitan Ram Manjhi, is caught in a web of his own making. The "puppet" is biting his master by refusing to quit even though his Janata Dal (United) has voted to reinstall Kumar as CM. At the time of writing, the JD(U) has announced his expulsion from the party, but Manjhi will remain CM till the Governor decides he has to go or seek a trust vote.

The "puppet" has learnt to pull his own strings, even though it may not be enough to keep his chair. Elections to Bihar are due in October, and any political manoeuvring is limited to the next six-seven months.

While Manjhi's revolt against the party bosses, including JD(U) president Sharad Yadav and leader KC Tyagi, not to speak of Kumar himself, may well end up in failure, the fact is he is unlikely to go without damaging the image of Kumar. The JS(U)'s moves have already made Manjhi a martyr to the Mahadalit community he comes from. If luck smiles on him, he could well end up holding office a bit longer than expected as caretaker CM.

However badly one may rate his performance as CM, his political moves in recent weeks have been nothing short of adroit.

Manjhi smartly used a scheduled meeting of the newly-founded replacement for the Planning Commission, the Niti Aayog, in Delhi to his advantage yesterday (8 February). He used the occasion to officially meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and talk "business". He then held a press conference with the national media to let the world know that no one should make the mistake of underestimating his political acumen. He is likely to give his one-time mentor Nitish Kumar a run for his money.

He managed to dent Nitish Kumar's image with this statement: "He (Nitish) thought I would be his rubber stamp. I acted to be the same for about two months but when (he) kept telling me that I was a puppet, whose actions were guided by a remote control, I felt hurt. My self-respect told me to be my own man. As I started taking decisions as I thought fit and establishing myself as a leader, Nitish became uneasy and desperate for power. He can't remain (without) power. Nitish's mask has slipped and his true face has now been unveiled."

A more damaging statement cannot be imagined, for Manjhi is now seen as a Dalit leader who stood up to his master. This will hurt Nitish's key constituency of Mahadalits, who will now wonder why he had to remove Manjhi.

From details sourced by Firstpost from Bihar leaders in Patna and Delhi, a fascinating story of political manoeuvring and counter-manoeuvring emerges. Both sides - the pro-Manjhi and the pro-Kumar camps - have kept the constitutional experts busy.

For now, Manjhi is buying time and sources told Firstpost that the BJP leadership has assured him of its tacit support in "exposing Nitish Kumar." The longer Manjhi survives in office, the more damage he can do to Kumar's carefully cultivated image.

Here is how things could unfold in the next few days: Governor KN Tripathi will, in all likelihood, not accept Nitish Kumar's claim to be the new leader of the JD(U) legislature party and hence be sworn in as chief minister. The argument is that an incumbent chief minister can cease to hold office only in two circumstances - if he resigns, or if he fails to prove his majority in a floor test in the assembly. Various judicial pronouncements have ensured that he can't be removed by the Governor merely on the belief that his support has reduced from majority to minority.

The Governor, if he feels the CM's majority is in doubt, can ask him to obtain a trust vote in the Vidhan Sabha. The Bihar assembly reopens on 20 February. Manjhi too has been talking about a floor test. Governor Tripathi, who was Speaker in Uttar Pradesh when some contentious defections took place from the BSP, is more than likely to recommend a floor test instead of removing Manjhi and swearing in Nitish Kumar.

If the Governor asks for a floor test, the next stage in the drama will be about the kind of numbers Manjhi gets to fill his council of ministers before the trust vote. Manjhi claims the support of 36 legislators, and if his numbers are right, he can make many of them ministers as he replaces the ministers who quit to join Nitish Kumar's bandwagon.

This is where the numbers game becomes important. In a 243-member Legislative Assembly, 10 seats are currently vacant. The JD(U) has 111 MLAs (which includes Manjhi's group), the BJP 87, the RJD 24, the Congress five, There are five Independents. In a reduced assembly strength, Manjhi would require the support of 117 MLAs to continue in office. So far out of JD(U)'s 111 MLAs, 97 have signed in Nitish's favour, but in a dynamic political situation things could change.

So if the Governor allows Manjhi to expand his Cabinet to the legal limit - 37 - he can sail through if the BJP gives him the backing of its own 87 MLAs. Some of the independents could also support him.

Sources told Firstpost that if Manjhi succeeds in his first goal of expanding the cabinet to 37, he could first move to replace the Speaker, Uday N Chaudhary, with the support of the BJP. This move is considered vital to protect the interests of any JD(U) or RJD MLA who may want to vote for Manjhi. The Speaker's decision is always vital for the disqualification of MLAs from the provisions of the Anti-Defection Act. The current Speaker is already playing a key role, as has already recognised Nitish Kumar as leader of the house even though he is not CM.

If the Manjhi camp is not able to remove the Speaker, another alternative being thought of is to get the cabinet to recommend the dissolution of the assembly - an iffy manoeuvre that would need the Governor's support. If the Governor still asks for a trust vote, and Manjhi loses, he can submit his resignation and recommend dissolution again due to unstable numbers.

The Speaker and the Governor will thus be key players in this drama from now on.

The game, on Manjhi's side, is to try and remain in office at least as caretaker CM till elections are held. Elections are due in October 2014 - so hanging on for six months is Manjhi's goal.

Manjhi might well be a disaster as CM, but then Nitish Kumar did not choose him for his administrative abilities. He was meant to be his Manmohan Singh or O Paneerselvam.

But what Nitish Kumar would not have counted on was Manjhi's political savviness. Manjhi is well on his way to proving that he is his own master, and can teach his former boss a thing or two about politics. He is emerging as a Mahadalit leader in his own right after this political fight.

Nitish Kumar must now be regretting his choice.