A principal reason for Narendra Modi being swept to power in May was
disgust with Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Manmohan Singh - indecisive,
short on ideas, bereft of charisma and supervising a government of
scams. In a house of 543, the Congress had 209 seats. The shortfall of
63 was made up of coalition partners.
Manmohan Singh was a
fine finance minister but, as prime minister, had a problem of being
deferential to the Gandhis to the point of being obsequious. He looked
more ineffective than he was. This collective anti-incumbency was
harvested by Modi.
Big business along with their multinational
linkages mounted a media campaign larger than any in electoral history;
by some estimates even bigger than the Obama campaign. This campaign too
found the adage apt: with opponents like the Congress, who needs
friends? For the first time in decades, a single party government came
to power. Without any alteration that same defunct Congress is being
sought to be resurrected.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is
committed to Hindu nationalism. This does strike a chord with a majority
of Hindus. But the storm troopers who helped bring BJP to power were
from ultra Hindutva groups like the RSS and the VHP. These extremist
groups read the mandate which brought Modi to power according to their
exclusive lights. They went on a rampage demanding “ghar wapsi†or
reconversion of Muslims and Christians to Hinduism. Hindu women must
produce five children to boost population; they must resist an
inexplicable quantity called “Love Jehadâ€. They went to absurd lengths
crediting ancient India with every conceivable scientific invention.
Elephant God Ganesha was a result of plastic surgery. They provoked
communal riots; barged into parties admonishing youngsters against
dancing and drinking beer. Modi waited and watched from an ambiguous
distance.
By their excesses, they ended up embarrassing the
majority of Hindus along with other Indians. This when that very helpful
tailwind, the anti incumbency against Sonia, Rahul and Manmohan Singh
had disappeared. The international talent Corporate India had mobilized
for one full year buying up every square inch of media space to build up
Modi as the development messiah, was no longer available. And, above
all, prices of food had risen sky high.
Came a series of by
elections in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand. The Modi magic appeared not to be
working. Then came the elections to the Delhi State Assembly. On a
platform against corruption and for social justice the Aam Admi Party
trounced the BJP. Of the 70 seats, AAP won 67, making Arvind Kejriwal
the David to Modi’s Goliath.
After this experience last month,
there was general nervousness among big industry and their multinational
partners: what kind of budget will Modi and his bright Finance Minister
Arun Jaitley produce?
They have produced a market friendly
budget focused on massive infrastructure projects, putting out
allurements to invite Foreign Direct Investment. After the electoral
debacle in Delhi, the fear was that the government would fall back on
populism, increasing public spending to enhance the social security net.
But Modi surprised everybody. The Corporates were overjoyed.
In
fact, Modi has placed himself at the mercy of Corporates: it is in your
interest, he seems to be telling India Inc, as well as that of the
country, to keep the BJP government buoyant with cent percent media
support on the scale that was available to the party eversince Modi’s
candidature was announced in June 2013, right upto the elections in May
2014. Will the Corporates now attend to his requirements, in the
forthcoming elections in Bihar, Assam, UP. He has gambled for growth not
electoral populism. If the economy shows promise he will look safe by
the next general elections in 2019.
The riveting development the
one that will define Modi’s innings, has been the power sharing
government in Kashmir. This has opened up the possibility of improved
relations with Pakistan which in turn will bring down the communal
temperature, an enabling precondition for accelerated economic growth.
The
chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir is the most astute leader of the
Peoples Democratic Party, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. He has vast experience
of Delhi too where he has served as the union home minister. He is
familiar with all the caverns of intrigue on the Delhi, Srinagar,
Islamabad axis.
Recently, one of the most respected columnists in
India, Swaminathan Aiyar lifted the scab from an old wound: the
genocide of over 200,000 Muslims in Jammu before the accession of the
state by Maharaja Hari Singh into the Indian Union. The later migration
of 400,000 Kashmiri Pandits from the valley to Jammu, according to
Aiyar, is a living tragedy though not quite as gruesome as the Jammu
massacres.
That the BJP and the PDP have joined hands in Kashmir
against the backdrop is laden with possibilities. Summer is round the
corner. A bumper season to boost tourism in the most magnificent parts
of the state right upto the Gurez valley is possible in conditions of
peace. It will open up hearts and minds.
Ghalib wrote:
“Hasad se dil agar afsurda hai,
Garme tamasha ho
Ki chashm e tung shayad kasrat e
Nazzara se waa ho.â€
(If meanness and malice oppress the heart, step out and travel,
Narrowness of vision may open up with the abundance of the spectacle.)
(A
senior commentator on political and diplomatic affairs, Saeed Naqvi can
be reached on [email protected]. The views expressed are
personal.)
