Headlines
Modi & Manmohan: 1 Year, spot the differences
New Delhi, May 11
The economy rebounded; exports and
imports declined, foreign-exchange reserves grew; coal production,
electricity generation and petroleum consumption rose, non-performing
assets (NPAs) in banking soared.
There are great similarities
between Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first year in office - which he
completes on May 26 - and the corresponding first year of his
predecessor, Manmohan Singh's last term.
In seven of 12
indicators evaluated by IndiaSpend, the data reveal a similar trend - a
reasonable economic performance after an economic downturn.
The large variations in the first-year period centre on:
Industrial
production: In Modi's first year, the index of industrial production
(IIP) for eight core sectors (coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery
products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity) grew 5 percent
during 2014-15 against 4.2 percent the previous year. In Singh's first
year, the IIP for six core industries (crude oil, refinery products,
coal, electricity, cement and finished carbon steel) grew 10.4 percent,
compared to 2.8 percent in the previous year 2008-09.
Exports
and imports: In terms of dollars, exports and imports declined 2 percent
and 0.5 percent, respectively, in 2014-15 from 2013-14. In Singh's
first year (of his second term) exports and imports declined far more
sharply, 4 percent and 5 percent, respectively, in 2009-10 compared to
2008-09.
Nuclear energy: With the commissioning of the
Kudankulam Unit-1 of 1,000 mw in Tamil Nadu during December 2014,
India's installed nuclear capacity reached 5,780 mw in 2014-15 from
4,780 MW in 2013-14, an increase of 21 perccent. In 2009-10, it was up
10.6 percent from the previous year.
Direct comparisons are
difficult, considering that Singh was in his second term in office. Modi
carries Singh's economic legacy, which worsened considerably by the end
of the term, attributed by observers to a global downturn and
misgovernance.
But these indicators offer a broad statistical evaluation of the first years of Modi and Singh during UPA2.
A journey through the numbers
Economic
Growth: Overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2009-10, at
constant prices, was reported to be 8.9 percent. After a change in
calculation and base year, GDP growth isestimated to be 7.4 percent for
2014-15.
Agriculture: Agriculture, which employs about 600
million Indians, registered growth of 1.1 percent in 2014-15 compared to
0.8 percent during 2009-10. The numbers indicate a long-standing - and
worsening - crisis.
Foreign-exchange reserves: Forex reserves
increased 12 percent from $341 billion at the end of 2014-15 as compared
to $304 billion at the end of 2013-14. For Singh in UPA2, they
increased 5.4 percent from $241.7 billion at the end of 2008-09 to
$254.9 billion in 2009-10.
Coal: Coal from India's mines
increased 8.2 percent in 2014-15, later falling into a controversy over
botched allotments, one of the reasons for the decline in UPA2's image.
In 2009-10, production increased 8.1 percent. Performance of the coal
sector is expected to improve with the re-allotment of 67 coal blocks
through an auction, although Modi's figure of Rs.2 lakh crore ($31.25
billion) windfall is now contested.
Petroleum: In 2014-15,
consumption of petroleum products (diesel, petrol, LPG and the like)
increased 3.1 percent, compared to 3.2 percent during 2009-10. India's
demand for petroleum products is expected to grow 3.3 percent in the
next financial year, according to the oil ministry.
Electricity:
A good indicator of an economy's health, installed electricity capacity
in 2014-15, rose 10 percentagainst 2013-14. In 2009-10, it increased
7.7 percent over the previous year.
Renewable energy: With
pressure on India to cut carbon emissions renewable energy - it is
responsible for 12 percent of India's total installed power - growth
rates were high during both terms. The total installed capacity of
renewable energy reported a 7.56 percent growth in 2014-15 and growth of
17.20 percent in 2009-10.
Non-performing assets: NPAs of public
sector banks increased 17 percent from Rs.2.27 lakh crore in March 2014
to Rs.2.73 lakh crore in December 2014, a carry-over from UPA2. Public
sector bank NPAs had increased 23 percent in 2009-10 over the previous
year. NPA growth rates of this magnitude can destabilise the banking
system.
(In arrangement with IndiaSpend.org, a data-driven, non-profit, public-interest journalism platform)