Headlines
A turbulent fourth year for Jayalalitha's party in Tamil Nadu
Chennai, May 15
After a three-year
roller-coaster ride, Tamil Nadu's ruling AIADMK hit almost a wall in its
fourth year of governance when its general secretary and then chief
minister J.Jayalalithaa was dethroned by a court verdict.
Till September 27, 2014, all was going well for Jayalalithaa, who had come to power for the third time on May 16, 2011.
She had led AIADMK to a stupendous victory in the April assembly polls, winning 203 of the state's 234 seats.
Before
that, the government had won in the Supreme court a case against Kerala
relating to the water storage level in the Mullaperiyar Dam.
This
was an additional feather in the cap of state's earlier legal victories
like forcing the central government to gazette the final award of the
Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal in February 2013, after decades of
meandering.
The AIADMK government also bought five percent stake
in Neyveli Lignite Corporation, thereby preventing the central
government's plan to dilute its holding in favour of a private party.
In
2014, the 'Iron Lady of Tamil Nadu' practically reduced the oppostion
to a non-entity at the centre by winning 37 out of 39 seats in the Lok
Sabha. The opposition parties were in a state of disarray.
But on
September 27 a trial court in Karnataka convicted her to a four year
jail term and a fine of Rs.100 crore in the disproportionate assets
case. It was as if a tornado had hit the AIADMK.
In face of the shocker, the Iron Lady kept her cool in public, but her members turned out to be far more brittle.
It
was a pathetic combination of emotional distress and sycophancy that
made O.Panneerselvam, who replaced Jayalalithaa as the chief minister,
and his cabinet colleagues weep openly during the swearing-in ceremony.
Thereafter,
Panneerselvam government's indecisiveness gave ammunition to the
opposition parties to fire their guns at the ruling party.
It was the PMK that took the initiative to attack the government on various counts.
The
suicide of an engineer, Muthukumarasamy, owing to alleged pressure from
Agriculture Minister Agri S.S. Krishnamoorthy's office to appoint
certain people as drivers cost the minister his job. It also gave the
opposition another stick to beat the government with.
The
government also twice postponed the much-expected Global Investors Meet
after holding roadshows overseas and spending around Rs.100 crore on it.
Industry turned cautious about investing in the state because of the political drift.
The
government seemed to have come to a standstill. The party and the
ministers went into a prayer mode for their leader's acquittal.
This
made the main opposition party, the DMK's heir apparent M.K. Stalin
write an open letter to Panneerselvam."Tamil Nadu is in the ICU and its
vital signs are a cause for extreme concern," he wrote.
DMK's
ability to take advantage of the situation was hamstrung though, as
their leaders were fighting the 2G telecom scam case. The Congress
suffered a split with senior leader G.K. Vasan floating his own Tamil
Maanila Congress (TMC). But the ruling BJP at the centre saw in the
rudderless AIADMK an opportunity to leverage its position.
Interestingly,
after her conviction, the AIADMK tried to sustain Jayalalithaa's public
image by terming her the "people's" chief minister. And the government
continued with her pet policies of providing freebies to the people.
Presenting
the budget for 2015-16 Panneerselvam, who also holds the finance
portfolio, said 95 lakh sets of electric fans, mixers and grinders were
distributed during the first three years.
During 2014-2015 and 2015-2016, sanction had been accorded for distributing 45 lakh packages each year.
Moreover,
21.65 lakh laptops had been distributed free to students. The
government allocated Rs.1,100 crores for this in the budget estimates.
Political pundits now say that after Jayalalithaa's acquittal will allow her to bounce back with additional force.
"With
the court acquitting Jayalalithaa of all charges, there is nothing to
stop the AIADMK juggernaut from rolling down on the opposition in the
2016 assembly elections," political analyst Gnani Sankaran had told
IANS.
The AIADMK may even opt for snap elections before the end
of this year to ride on the sympathy wave that has swelled in
Jayalalithaa's favour, he said.
According to political observers, the AIADMK may go it alone in the assembly elections, as it did in the Lok Sabha elections.
The
DMK may try to forge an alliance with parties other than the Congress
and the BJP. But with its leaders - A. Raja, Kanimozhi and Dayanidhi
Maran - under trial in the 2G scam, it would be difficult for the party
to pose a serious challenge to the AIADMK.
It's only a matter of time, perhaps a few days, before Jayalalithaa takes on the mantle of the chief minister again.
But
a shadow still lies across her future. The prosecution in the
disproportionate case says that an "arithmetical error" had made the
judge in Karnataka come to the wrong conclusion about here innocence.
And that the Supreme Court is likely to reverse the judgement.
That
is unclear at present. What is clear though, is that the Iron Lady is
set to ride back to power, and make efforts to stay there for a long,
long time.
(Venkatachari Jagannathan can be contacted at [email protected])