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BJP can only hope for narrow victory in Bihar elections (Political Circus)
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By Amulya Ganguli In the hour of Narendra Modi's electoral triumph last year, he could
not have imagined that only a year-and-a-half later, he would face a
situation where he and his party would have to devote all their energies
to maintain their prime position in the political field.
Unless
Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are able to overcome the
cballenge of their opponents in the Bihar assembly elections this coming
winter, their grip on the throne in Delhi will become shaky.
The
first sign that all was not well for Modi in Bihar was available last
August when the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)
and the Congress overcame the setbacks they had suffered in the general
elections a few months earlier to win six of the 10 assembly
by-elections in the state.
The BJP's tally of four pointed to a
waning of the Modi wave that had enabled the party to win 22 of the 40
parliamentary seats in Bihar in May, 2014. With the BJP's allies, the
Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) winning six and the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party
(RLSP) three, the BJP-plus group's total went up to 31.
To the
BJP's satisfaction, the worst show was by its former ally, Nitish
Kumar's JD-U, which could win only two seats while the latter's one-time
arch-enemy and now an ally, Lalu Prasad's RJD won seven, showing that
its victory by over 136,000 votes over the JD-U in the Maharajganj
by-election in June, 2013, was not a fluke.
Clearly, Nitish
Kumar's contention that Lalu Prasad had presided over a "jungle raj" in
Bihar when the RJD was in power between 1990 and 2005 had not
significantly eroded the latter's base of support.
But, now,
political exigencies have compelled Nitish Kumar to push Lalu Prasad to
the background. The JD-U chief is now the chief ministerial candidate of
the Janata "parivar" led by Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party
(SP).
The BJP, however, is unlikely to be too perturbed by these
developments. For one, the "parivar" has been saved in the nick of time
because only a few weeks ago, it was being said by the SP leaders that
the group would not be formed before the Bihar elections. Even now, its
"unity" is apparently confined only to Bihar.
For another, Lalu
Prasad's observation that he was ready to consume poison - accept
humiliation for the sake of fighting the "cobra of communalism" - has
been seen to reflect his unhappiness over Nitish Kumar's elevation.
The
RJD chief's distress is understandable because his conviction in the
fodder scam has undone his gradual political gains as was evident from
his party winning of seven parliamentary seats and three assembly
by-election seats in Bihar in 2014.
Although the Manmohan Singh
government tried to save him with Sonia Gandhi's blessings by enacting
an ordinance seeking to overturn the judicial diktat disqualifying
convicted legislators, the document was torn up in front of television
cameras by Rahul Gandhi. It was this act that has now led to the
anointment of Nitish Kumar at Lalu Prasad's expense.
But, the
fraught relations between the two OBC leaders could not have been eased
by the outward show of bonhomie if only because the RJD leader, as a
Yadav chieftain, can claim to have the support of the largest group of
the backward castes in Bihar since the Yadavs comprise 16 per cent of
the population.
Lalu Prasad, therefore, undoubtedly saw himself
as the obvious chief ministerial candidate of the Janata parivar till he
was unceremoniously dumped in favour of Nitish Kumar, who is a Kurmi, a
backward caste which makes up a mere 3.7 per cent of the state's
population.
The preponderance of the caste factor may seem odd
and even laughable to people outside the Bihar-Uttar Pradesh "cow belt".
But, it is a matter which is at the heart of electoral calculations in
the region.
Although Modi regretted the continued dominance of
casteism in Bihar during a recent visit to the state, it is precisely
these caste-based animosities that the BJP will try to exploit during
the poll campaign.
What is more, to show that it is not lagging
behind in playing the caste card itself, the party has claimed that the
Mauryan emperors, Chandragupta (324-300 BC) and Ashoka (272-232 BC), who
ruled from Patalipura, the ancient name of Patna, were of backward
caste origin - Kushwaha or Koeri.
What may be considered
unfortunate, however, is why the BJP should have fallen back on these
regressive tactics when its USP is supposed to be the prime minister's
development mantra. It was this agenda which won the BJP its famous
victory in the general election.
If it is now resorting to the
familiar divisive means of the Hindi heartland to edge ahead of its
opponents, the reason probably is the party's realization that it hasn't
been able to push the economic reforms vigorously enough to fulfil its
last year's promises.
Given this failure, the most which the BJP
can expect is a narrow victory, which will be nearly as much damaging to
its reputation as a defeat.
(Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst. The views expressed are personal. He can be reached at [email protected])