The Narendra Modi government has taken a giant leap backwards by
failing to push ahead with the much-needed amendments to the land law.
Its
decision to retain the original law means that it will take anything up
to five years for an investor to buy a plot of land, as the Niti Aayog
vice chairman, Arvind Panagariya, has pointed out.
The original
law was, of course, the handiwork of the socialistic inclination of
Congress president Sonia Gandhi, whose iron grip over the party and, as a
result, over the Manmohan Singh government, enabled her to enact the
supposedly pro-farmer and essentially anti-industries legislation.
Her
hope was that populist initiatives like the land law and the food
security act, which promised subsidized grains to 67 percent of the
population, would ensure her party's victory in last year's general
election.
In the event, the Congress put up its worst
performance, which showed that the electorate was not fooled by the
profligate welfare measure or the patently anti-development law.
Instead,
the voters wanted someone to come to power who promised economic growth
so that they would not be dependent on official charity or on policies
which were expected to lead to more fragmentations of holdings by
keeping farmers tied to their lands by complicating the process of sale
and purchase.
There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata
Party's (BJP) success in getting an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha
was entirely due to the popular expectation that Modi will vigorously
pursue economic reforms. From this standpoint, the BJP's current retreat
is a matter of huge disappointment as it is a setback to India's hope
of becoming an economic powerhouse in the near future.
The
Congress, and particularly its president and vice president, who
spearheaded the campaign in favour of this regressive step, will be
delighted since it will stymie Modi's "Make in India" project by
deterring foreign investment.
For Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, it is
the first favourable turn of events for the Congress since its Lok Sabha
tally dropped by as many as 165 seats since 2009 as they have succeeded
in forcing Modi on to the back foot.
But it will be unfair to
blame the Congress alone. The prime minister himself cannot be absolved
of the guilt of mishandling a sensitive issue.
For a start, he
rushed in when he should have been more circumspect. Perhaps, the BJP's
first ever majority in the Lok Sabha accentuated his customary
arrogance.
As a result, instead of preparing to rally those who
may have been expected to stand by him, like the BJP's allies and those
among the opposition parties which take a nuanced view of the economic
scene like the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Modi appears to have decided to go
ahead on his own.
The BJD would have been a helpful ally, for it
has seen how Rahul Gandhi's promise to be a foot soldier in Delhi of
the Niyamgiri tribals has condemned the innocent hill dwellers to be
hunter-gatherers for the foreseeable future in the absence of industrial
development.
Modi might have been able to win over the AIADMK as
well because, first, it is generally pro-reforms and, secondly, with
the DMK going along with the Congress, it has to be on the opposite
side.
But more than winning friends and influencing people, what
Modi failed to realize was that too enthusiastic a drive in favour of
industries could confirm his reputation of being pro-business, which is
not widely appreciated in India.
It is this chink in his armour which Rahul Gandhi has exploited by accusing the government of being "suit-boot ki sarkar".
It
is not only that Modi was unable to convince allies like the Shiv Sena
and the Akali Dal of the justifiability of his cause and how it will
benefit the country, including the farmers, in the long run, he could
not even win over status-quoist saffron outfits like the Swadeshi
Jagaran Manch, the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh and the Bharatiya Mazdoor
Sangh.
Lapses of this nature show how a chief minister who is
used to having his own way in a state can be lost in the labyrinth of
national politics where there are parties like the Congress which can
trip up an opponent even if he is on to a good thing.
The only
option for the central government is to let the states frame their own
land acquisition laws although these cannot contravene restrictions like
obtaining the consent of 70/80 percent of the landowners.
However,
since most states have realized the value of private sector investment,
including West Bengal whose Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee recently
visited London in search of investors, it is possible they will find a
way to circumvent the obstacles in order to attract industrialists.
If
so, Modi can still have the last laugh. But for the present, he has
suffered a major setback in his nascent career at the national level,
the second one after the BJP's crushing defeat at the Aam Aadmi Party's
hands in February.
(08.08.2015 - Amulya Ganguli is a political
analyst. The views expressed are personal. He can be reached at
[email protected])
