On July 30, the usually combative Uma Bharti, the union minister for
water resources, exhibited a diffident demeanor in the Lok Sabha when
she gave out that China may construct three more hydropower projects on
the Brahmaputra in Tibet (called Yarlung Tsangpo there) under its
recently announced 12th Five Year Plan.
The minister added two
other important facts. First, she indicated that an earlier such power
project at Zangmu, other than the proposed three, is a run-of-the-river
type. Secondly their effects and significance cannot be judged at the
moment due to non-availability of data.
The minister's statement,
instead of clearing the air of confusion and apprehension, is however
likely to cause more doubts. There is an existing agreement between
India and China which covers exchange of hydrological data between the
two countries on the Brahmaputra. Has this agreement fallen into disuse?
Secondly, the said projects being run-of-the-river type does not hold
out any assurance because even these types of projects entail creation
of storage dams.
The aforementioned hydro power projects will be
located at Dagu, Jiexu and Jiacha, all in the middle reaches of the
Brahmaputra. Another one at a place called Zangmu, whose existence was
long denied by China but ultimately conceded in 2010 after repeated
Indian protestations, has already been partly commissioned. In spite of
Uma Bharti's apparent calm and nonchalance in the Lok Sabha, doubt
persists in New Delhi's corridors of power. During the time of the
previous UPA government it was decided that the ministries of defence,
external affairs and the department of space would take up the matter
jointly with China. Was it really done? An answer is necessary.
Ominous
warnings are close at hand. On March 1, 2012, the river Siang (the
local name of the Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh) had run completely
dry at a place called Pasighat where it normally used to be very wide.
Although the river picked up momentum later on, it has not yet attained
its former virility.
Moreover, all the four hydro projects will
be situated very close to each other and this complicates the matter
further as large amounts of water will be stored within a narrow
geographical expanse leading to the possibility of depriving
northeastern India of not only water but also the much-needed silt which
makes the Assam plains fertile. There may also be floods in the region
if China decides to arbitrarily release water from these dams during
the monsoon.
How many hydroelectric dams has China been
constructing in Tibet? There is a great divergence of opinion on the
matter. Some say the number adds up to more than 100. However Jana
Jagriti, an Assam based NGO, thinks that 26 are coming up. According to
its estimate, Assam will get 64 percent less water during the monsoon
season and 85 percent less water during in the rest of the year due to
China's dam building activities.
But the real cause of concern
for India is the widespread report that China would construct a giant
hydro power project at a place called Medog which is very near the Great
Bend, a great U turn which the mighty Brahmaputra takes before entering
India after a 2,000-metre fall. It is slated to generate 38-49
gigawatts of electricity, which is more than India's installed hydro
capacity of 33 gigawatts. If it materializes, the dam will be twice as
big as the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze river. That China is serious
about the Medog plant is borne out by the development and upgradation of
the Bome-Medog highway, a kind of infrastructural development which
generally precedes beginning of such projects. There are reports that
China has constructed two huge water reservoirs at the Great Bend area
with storage capacities of 42 million and 31 million cubic metres.
All
these projects are situated in an earthquake-prone area and very close
to the geological fault line where the Indian Plate collides with the
Eurasian Plate. According to many experts, the massive earthquake in
2008 breaching parts of the Three Gorges Dam was caused by the
stupendous weight of water of the nearby Zipingpu Dam which was just
half-a-kilometre from the geological fault line. If such a catastrophe
occurs again, vast areas of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh will go under
water.
The crux of the problem is that there is no water sharing
treaty between India and China covering trans-national rivers and using
the international law that existing usage of water will determine
respective shares of countries, Beijing has pushed New Delhi to the
wall. India has only itself to blame.
(Amitava Mukherjee is a
senior journalist and commentator. The views expressed are personal. He
can be contacted at amukherjee57@yahoo.com
