BJP’s Claim for 400 seats: Is it based on facts or just plain bravado?

George Abraham

The BJP leaders claim that their NDA coalition will win over 400 seats for the upcoming

Parliamentary elections that will take place in India starting April 19 of this year. Is it a panacea

or a realistic assessment considering nationwide political dynamics? What is the purpose of

making such exaggerated claims if they are not based on accurate data? Their history is replete

with fraudulent claims and unscrupulous behavior. Why then should the public believe it now?

Anyway, this whole public relations campaign may also be aimed at enthusing the cadres.

Responding to their claim, Mr. Sam Pitroda, who is also known as the father of the

Telecommunication revolution in India, retorted, “BJP can win more than 400 seats in the 2024

elections if issues associated with EVMs are not fixed “. In further expressing his concerns, Mr.

Pitroda cited a report by “The Citizens’ Commission on Elections,” chaired by former Supreme

Court judge Madan B Lokur, and said that the main recommendations of the report were to

modify the current design of the VVPAT System to make it truly “voter-verified.”

It appears that the BJP leaders are engaged in a psychological warfare where people are being

conditioned to believe that Modi’s victory is inevitable. It has dual purposes: one is to demoralize

the opposition and dispirit their grassroots, and the other is to set up the stage for any illicit

operations that would benefit the party before a desensitized electorate. Their strategy is

apparently working.

The public generally assumes that Modi’s third term is inevitable, and to them, it is just a

numbers game as far as how big a majority his party could achieve. Is the Indian electorate so

naïve as to believe a narrative created by the BJP without supporting facts? However, the BJP

is confident that a public that believes in the ‘Gujarat Model’ can be swayed time after time and

will fall prey to their deception once again.

An entirely different picture might emerge if one looks at the electoral map. Their carefully

crafted plans may have little impact in South India. With Karnataka going back to the Congress

fold, BJP’s expectations of a repeat performance are quite unlikely. The victory in Telangana by

the Congress and the BJP’s lack of an alliance with TRS may also spell trouble for the BJP

there. In short, the BJP’s plan of building on the 2019 election results is indeed further

complicated by the setbacks in these two southern states. With 130 seats distributed among the

five states and the union territory in the south, the BJP’s chances of making any substantial

gains in South India will remain as elusive as ever before.

If we look at the poll results in the Northern States, the BJP almost swept them out, creating the

current brute majority in the Loka Sabha. They have won all the seats in states like Gujarat,

Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, and Tripura. In addition, Madhya

Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, U.P., Odisha, and Chhattisgarh combined for a whopping 92% of

all seats gained by the NDA coalition. It was an incredible win that even the Political pundits

have had a hard time explaining since that came at the heel of a disastrous mismanagement of

the COVID-19 pandemic that killed more people in India than anywhere else.

For any sane mind, that history will be hard to replicate. At present, the Modi regime is in the

throes of a mushrooming corruption scandal involving Electoral bonds. If the current allegations

of pay-to-play are proven, this BJP government may be one of the most corrupt administrations

in the history of an Independent India. This is the party that came to power, putting the

Manmohan Singh government on the defensive as regards a number of alleged scams. Yet,

they have far exceeded in excelling in corrupt ways while covering up their misdeeds from the

public’s view. Thanks to the Supreme Court, the public is learning much more about the crimes

and the exploitation the country has been subjected to.

For the BJP leaders, it is imperative that they stay in power not only to perpetuate their ideology

and remake India in its medieval ways but also to be in the unenviable position of power where

they will never be held accountable for their misdeeds and misgovernance. It is common

knowledge that the economy for the man on the main street is not working that well. Rampant

inflation, increasing unemployment among the youth, and persistent poverty at the lower end of

the strata have all clouded the high GDP numbers India boasts about. The economy is working

for the elites and the super-rich, who already own 40% of India’s wealth. It is crony capitalism at

its best, joined at the hip by the governing establishment.

There is a limit to one who can exploit religious sentiment to win votes. The euphoria over the

Ram Janmabhoomi Kshetra may be just about dissipated. Patriot games using CAA and NRC

may also have found their boundaries. Therefore, despite all the bravado about winning 400 or

more seats, the BJP team must be worried, and their internal polls must have indicated the

same. Therefore, they dwell on propagating this narrative about the upcoming massive victory,

intending to inject inertia into the minds of the opposition while adding fuel to energize their

cadre.

Considering these circumstances, one should be overly concerned about whether the country

will have free and fair elections. It doesn’t matter whether the electorate is dissatisfied or

opposition parties run a well-rounded campaign if the will of the people is not truly reflected in

the outcome. Some countries in the world would conduct pre-determined elections, whereas

India stood as a champion of democracy, transferring power when people finally spoke through

the ballot boxes. The question being raised by Sam Pitroda and others touches on this

susceptible issue,Free and fair elections are fundamental to a thriving democracy. One of the foremost indications

of that effect is citizenship participation in the democratic process. It is every citizen’s right and

duty to vote in the electoral process. Through that participation, they help to build a better

democratic system that could effectively serve the public. However, intimidation, corruption, and

threats to citizens during or before an election are against the principles of democracy, and the

same also holds true for manipulating the voter lists or the voting mechanisms. There ought to

be transparency in the public square where those in power are genuinely accountable to the

people, and the voters should be fully appraised of what decisions are made, by whom, and

why.

Therefore, the Supreme Court’s query to the Election Commission on adding VVPAT to every

EVM is sensible. Voter Verifie    d Paper Audit Trail is a machine that prints a paper slip of a

candidate’s name, serial number, and party’s symbol after a voter cast their vote. It displays a

paper slip for seven seconds for the voters to check if their vote is cast for the chosen

candidate. The paper slip then drops down to a locked compartment, and it can be used to audit

voting data in the EVMs. Whether the handpicked election commissioners by Modi Sarkar

would comply with the public sentiment on this issue will be critical in saving democracy for

India and its future generations.       

George Abraham