Panaji, May 19
Within 100 years, rising sea
levels caused by global warming could submerge large swathes of coastal
land in Kochi, Kerala's second most populous city, scientists at the
Goa-based National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) have predicted.
Inundation
scenarios created by NIO scientists R. Mani Murali and P.K. Dinesh
Kumar using satellite imagery and a digital elevation model have also
warned that Kochi, a city the duo claims has "expanded rapidly and
heavily stressed from environmental perspectives", will create "harmful
effects" for the population as well as the coastal environment and
severely impact fishing, agriculture and other socio-economic activity.
The
two scenarios simulated by the scientists for a one-metre and two-metre
sea level rise are in sync with the globally accepted levels of sea
rise of 0.5 metre to two- metres over the coming century.
"For
the sea level rise scenarios of 1m and 2m, the total inundation zones
were estimated to be 169.11 km2 and 598.83 km2 respectively using
Geographic Information System (GIS). The losses of urban areas were
estimated at 43 km2 and 187 km2 for the 1m and 2m sea level rise
respectively which is alarming information for the most densely
populated state of India," said the research paper published earlier
this year.
"The results obtained conclusively point that sea
level rise scenarios will bring profound effects on the land use and
land cover classes as well as on coastal landforms in the study region.
Coastal inundation would leave ocean front and inland properties
vulnerable," the study further says, adding that increase in water
levels would alter the coastal drainage gradients resulting in flooding
and intrusion of salt water in coastal acquifers.
Kochi, formerly
known as Cochin, is the second most populous city in Kerala and serves
as an important maritime trade, fishing and recreational, medical
tourism hub.
Most of the picturesque city lies at sea level and is spread along a coastline around 48 km in length.
The
reason why the NIO report gains immediate significance is because of
the rapid urbanization, which has brought human settlements perilously
close to the Arabian sea.
The city already has the inglorious
distinction of having the highest number of Coastal Regulatory Zone
(CRZ) violations across Kerala, which if one goes by the study, now
stand the risk of being submerged to the sea level rise in the coming
years.
"With the projected inundation of this magnitude, the
coastal zone would be at risk of flooding, where several near shore
settlements will be impacted severely. Damages to this coastal city
cannot be observed in isolation as it is linked with other regions
through economic and cultural ties. Changes will affect the hinterlands
too and chain reactions may follow. Urban planning will be confronted
with a number of anticipatory issues including adaptation strategies,"
the report warns.
Asking the state authorities and other
stakeholders to gear up for rising sea levels from "this second itself",
the scientists have urged devising preventive planning, adaptive
management techniques and allocation of future land use, keeping in mind
the probable inundation zones charted out in the study.
"Mostly,
agricultural lands, urban areas and vegetation zones are affected in
this region. Alternate or modified agricultural practices, security for
the fresh water, managing the urban and industrial areas should be
initiated from this second itself," the report states.
(Mayabhushan Nagvenkar can be contacted [email protected] )
